Blair’s defeat prediction should surprise no-one

Today’s Observer is reporting that Tony Blair has told his friend and former fundraiser Lord Levy that he doesn’t think that Gordon Brown can win the next General Election.  He probably doubts that Robbie Williams will ever crack the US too.   This story- leaked from Lord Levy’s forthcoming memoirs- should come as a surprise to no-one.  Not only is there no love lost between the men, but the election- as things stand- is a foregone conclusion.  It’s not so much that there’s a Cameron juggernaut that shows no signs of slowing down- that would be a gross exaggeration.  It is not that Cameron is winning over the electorate; the election is being lost by Brown’s catastrophic performance in the top job.  Since the Labour Conference inheritance tax debacle, Brown has hardly put a foot right.  His is the runaway juggernaut, with all of the potential for catastrophe that the metaphor implies.

It never fails to surprise me that two close friends can publicly call each other liars and still retain that strong bond of friendship in private.  Oh I’m not talking about Tony and Gordon here, how could you think that?  On the contrary, their public declarations of mutual respect never managed to hide their deepening private animosity.  No, yesterday Blair issued a categorical denial of ever having said anything of the sort, while on the same day his friend Levy was smarming another interviewer on the subject.  Indeed Levy expanded upon the matter citing Blair’s disappointment in Labour’s dramatic slide in the opinion polls.  That he would’ve had the political integrity to keep his own counsel on the matter will have irked him and caused embarrassment, but there will be no fall-out with Levy.  There’s more chance of him making it up with Brown than falling out with Levy over this.

I’ve talked consistently and with no little confidence about Labour’s coming electoral defeat while polling day is still in the distance and UK politics has experienced unprecedented volatility in the past decade.  It’s foolhardy.  My reason for doing so isn’t born of a desire to see Labour lose (I’d happily see the back of them were there a decent, honourable, honest, equable and capable replacement available, but Cameron isn’t that man) it is because I see no way back for the party.  Brown is a lame duck and his cabinet and party are damaged irreparably- partly through the inevitability of being in power for a decade.  Momentum is a big thing in politics and it is undoubtedly with the Tories now.  Short of Cameron and Osborne being prosecuted as drug-dealers or gun-runners, the election is a foregone conclusion.  Middle England have switched allegiance, Brown cannot win them back now and the Labour party will not change it’s leader even if they’re wiped out on Thursday, lose the 10p Tax vote and have to bring in fuel rationing as an emergency measure. 

Blair, for all his (many) faults, knows politics.  When he sees Brown squandering Labour’s lead, he must feel like a Teacher whose star pupil flunks their exams after hours of extra-curricular revision.  And that is why Blair’s defeat prediction should surprise no-one.  How credible is it that so shrewd a political observer would expect anything other than his clone replacing his former ally?

~ by theraffishdandy on 27 April, 2008.